Calgary is Canada’s second most vulnerable city to U.S. tariffs, says report

February 12, 2025 Canuck

Calgary is one of the most tariff-vulnerable cities in Canada, falling behind only Saint John, N.B., according to new analysis conducted by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Using Statistics Canada trade data, the chamber developed an index to model two key point: a city’s dependence on the U.S. as a key export destination, and its U.S. export intensity.

That index found that, of Canada’s 41 biggest cities, the three most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs are Saint John, Calgary and Windsor. Lethbridge is 10th on the list.

“President Trump’s tariffs are going to have significant consequences for the global economy, but they’re also going to have a disproportionate impact on various Canadian cities, and for some, the impact is going to be higher, and that’s really going to hit home,” said Pascal Chan, the chamber’s vice-president of strategic policy and supply chains.

“Calgary is a key hub that depends on a stable Canada-U.S. relationship, and this disruption puts a lot of jobs and investments at real risk.”

A chart of Canada's 41 largest cities, ranked in the order of vulnerability to U.S. tariffs. — The Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s ranking of Canadian cities’ vulnerability to U.S. tariffs, using custom Statistics Canada trade data. (Canadian Chamber of Commerce)

Chan said Calgary’s exports of crude oil, natural gas and beef to the United States are why the city is so high on the list. Calgary exports over $119 billion worth of goods to the U.S. each year, from 1,887 exporters, according to the report.

The goal of the report is to give governments and businesses the information they need to respond to what’s likely to come, said Chan.

Canada is now just over a week into a 30-day reprieve from U.S. tariffs on goods. However, on Monday, Trump slapped a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries — including Canada.

Already, companies in that industry in and around Calgary are bracing for the impact.

a person in a full head visor uses a welder on metal, with fire and sparks — U.S. President Donald Trump said he will put 25 per cent tariffs on all of his country’s steel and aluminum imports, a move that will particularly hurt Canada, including the industry in Alberta. (CBC)

Mayor Jyoti Gondek said she was surprised to learn from the report that Calgary sends 97 per cent of its exports to the United States.

“I think it’s important to recognize the situation that we find ourselves in.… We know we have a good trade relationship with the United States, but to know that 97 per cent of our exports go there — that’s a pretty stark figure,” said Gondek.

Carlo Dade, director of trade and trade infrastructure with the Canada West Foundation, said the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s report is another piece of evidence that Calgary will be hit particularly hard by tariffs.

But he said there are still many unknowns about the impact, partly because they’re difficult to measure.

“Will [tariffs] come back at 25 per cent? Will there be a last-minute change? The other significant variable that’s almost impossible to model is duration,” said Dade.

“There’s a huge difference to what you plan for as a business if you think the tariffs will be five months or six months, versus if you think it’s going to persist throughout the … 208 weeks of a Trump presidency.”

He said if tariffs on energy exports were hiked up to 25 per cent alongside all other goods — unlike the latest proposed 10 per cent — it would increase the intensity of the impact on Calgary. But it likely wouldn’t change Calgary’s ranking, since Saint John is also a major exporter of oil.

Dade said he wants to see what will be done about this information. He pointed to an announcement last week by Alberta’s minister of advanced education, Rajan Sawhney, as a step in the right direction.

Sawhney said she intends to establish a research body that’s focused on U.S. policy from an Alberta perspective. She said she’ll be hosting roundtable discussions to figure out what that will look like — whether it’s a think tank, a bureau established in a post-secondary institution or something else.

A woman standing behind a mic. The stand says Calgary Chamber. — Advanced Education Minister Rajan Sawhney presents a speech at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s fireside chat event on Feb. 5. (Mike Symington/CBC)

“I want to create something that will be there to provide policy advice, strategic advice — not only to government and policymakers, but also to industry, to not-for-profits, or to anybody who is going to be working or doing any kind of business with the United States,” said Sawhney at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s Feb. 5 event.

Dade said that move is important because it allows Western Canada to be a bigger part of the conversation.

“Rather than just taking instruction and data from Central Canada and from Ottawa, it’s critical that if we’re going to have a Team Canada approach, the West be treated as an equal.”

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Calgary is Canada’s second most vulnerable city to U.S. tariffs, says report

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