Economic uncertainty looms over spring sitting of Alberta legislature

February 25, 2025 Canuck

As the Alberta government heads into a spring legislative sitting on Tuesday pledging to follow through with auto insurance reform and tweaking professional regulatory college powers, political observers say much of the public’s focus will be on the budget.

“It is important to note that this session is not occurring within a bubble,” government House leader Joseph Schow told reporters at the legislature on Monday.

“We are in the midst of a moment of global uncertainty with geopolitical change and shifting markets.”

Brendan Boyd, MacEwan University associate professor of political science, says the threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports leaves the government’s finance department in a baffling predicament trying to predict the average price of oil for the next year while estimating resource revenues.

“I just don’t know how you would even do that job right now,” Boyd said in an interview Monday.

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner had warned last fall that the prospect of tariffs on oil and gas could put a balanced provincial budget at risk.

U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports are supposed to be paused until March 4, five days after Horner will table the provincial budget.

Although the government could plan to spend conservatively, Boyd said politicians must also consider the potential unpopularity of program cuts as the United Conservative Party approaches the midpoint of its four-year mandate.

Boyd said Danielle Smith’s government will also struggle to deflect attention from allegations of conflicts of interest and political pressure in how some public health contracts were awarded.

Former Alberta Health Services CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos has sued the health minister and AHS for wrongful dismissal. Her statement of claim alleges she was politically pressured to renew contracts with private surgical facilities at prices higher than other vendors receive. She also alleges she was fired after launching probes into contracting.

The allegations have not been proven in court. The premier and health minister have denied any wrongdoing.

Boyd says the allegations could erode public support for the government’s work to divide control of health care into four separate organizations and contract out more work to private providers.

“I don’t see this going away any time soon,” Boyd said. “How much does this overtake everything else that the government is trying to do, and disrupt some of their big-ticket items, like health-care reform?”

Changes to regulatory colleges, electricity system

Schow said on Monday the government plans to table 20 pieces of legislation in the spring sitting, which is scheduled to run until May 15 with two week-long constituency breaks.

Among them is a move to consolidate legislation governing professional regulatory colleges from nine laws into one, he said.

Last fall, the premier said regulators shouldn’t have the power to restrict freedom of speech for doctors, engineers, lawyers, nurses or other professionals, and launched a legislative review.

Schow wouldn’t say whether the upcoming bill is related to that review.

He said changes are also coming to legislation governing mental health services workers to regulate these services and ensure the professionals are following standards of Alberta’s recovery-oriented approach to treating addictions.

That bill is on the legislative order paper and could be introduced as soon as Tuesday.

Last fall, the premier also announced an auto insurance system overhaul that would substantially limit an injured person’s opportunity to sue for injury claims. Schow said legislation is coming to implement those changes, which aren’t expected to take effect until 2027.

The interior of a car dealership with several cars parked in it. — The government will table legal changes needed to reform Alberta’s auto insurance system in the legislature in spring 2025. (Radio-Canada)

Bills are also coming that are supposed to improve the affordability of electricity, and “improve accountability and the protection of freedoms during emergencies,” Schow said.

Future of tax cut unknown

In the 2023 election campaign, Smith promised an income tax cut that would create an eight per cent tax bracket on the first $60,000 earned. The last budget said a new, lower tax bracket would be phased in over two years, starting in 2026.

Schow wouldn’t say Monday if that tax cut is coming this spring, but did point to the existence of a finance bill on the list of upcoming legislation.

Tom Vernon, a senior consultant with Crestview Strategy, said the public was angry last time the government delayed the tax cut, but the current economic uncertainty could give government a valid reason to delay again.

“They could get a little bit of a little bit of space around, ‘Look, we don’t know what the U.S. administration is going to do from week to week, let alone day-to-day’,” Vernon said.

The government also revealed Monday it wants to spend $180 million in the next three years to start building two 150-bed “compassionate intervention centres,” to open in Edmonton and Calgary in 2029.

The premier has signalled her intention to amend the law so family members, health professionals and law enforcement officers can apply to force an adult into addictions treatment if they present a danger to themselves or others.

A spokesperson for Alberta’s minister of addictions and mental health said that legislation would come in either spring or fall 2024.

Christina Gray, Opposition House leader, said in a Friday interview the NDP will continue its calls for the government to order an independent, judge-led public inquiry into the allegations about health contracting.

Gray said the NDP is watching to see whether the government takes steps to help Albertans with the high cost of living and improve access to health care and education.

“There’s definitely been a real difference between the Danielle Smith who campaigned to be premier and the Danielle Smith who’s governing,” Gray said.

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