Calgary’s 5-day forecast: Warmer and drier than originally expected

It’s time for the Thursday edition of “How Warm Today, And How Much Rain This Weekend?” The answers to these questions are 22 C, and… less that previously predicted.

Let’s break it all down.

A number of forecast models pin today squarely on a high near 20 C, but we’re still coping with warm wind. Today it rises from the south instead of yesterday’s westerlies, which popped sections of the city to 22-23 C. Still, that’s a contributing factor to the high, though it will involve gusts to at least 40 km/h, with a chance we crack 50.

Ditto Friday, but with a directional shift back to westerlies.

So what’s changing, again, for precipitation? Here’s the early Friday look:

So that low bursts onto the scene tomorrow morning. It’ll help create westerlies for us. There’s a wildly small chance of showers late Friday from it. But that’s not the low we’re interested in; this is:

The expectation is that this one (which would arrive on the Saskatchewan-Manitoba boundary Sunday morning) would be grabbing moisture off the foothills and throwing it at us. This one was projected this week to form in Montana before swinging to the north-northeast. The previous track took longer – it’s moving a lot more rapidly now, which limits the impact in southern Alberta. It’s a small change, but it’s further proof that forecast models don’t like mountains, much.

The Saturday forecast is not completely dried out, but as we close in and models verify, we’re down from “rain” to “chance of showers.” Not great.

Sunday still runs a shot, and so does Monday. Now, we’re peaking at 15 millimetres, but likely closer to eight mm.

YOUR FIVE-DAY CALGARY FORECAST

Today

  • Mainly cloudy
  • Daytime high: 22 C
  • Evening: shower risk, low 9 C

Friday

  • Partly cloudy
  • Daytime high: 19 C
  • Evening: some cloud, low 6 C

Saturday

  • Mainly sunny, chance of p.m. showers
  • Daytime high: 14 C
  • Evening: chance of showers, low 2 C

Sunday

  • Mainly cloudy, chance of p.m. showers
  • Daytime high: 10 C
  • Evening: mainly cloudy, chance of showers, low 0 C

Monday

  • Mainly cloudy, scattered showers
  • Daytime high: 9 C
  • Evening: clearing, low -1 C

Today’s pictures are all the awesome chinook arch honourable mentions that came through on Twitter:

Whether it’s wildlife, weather or pets – submit your photos here, email me here, or tweet them over.

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