Your Victoria Day long weekend forecast: up, down, and rainy

CALGARY — Midway through the 4 o’clock hour, the snowfall warnings cleared from our province. A couple of centimetres are yet to fall near Milk River, which may bring a final skiff through both Lethbridge and Medicine Hat.

But not much further.

Moving on…

The Victoria Day long weekend has been trapped in a glass case of emotion this week. At times, temperatures were expected to drop off a cliff, thanks to the jet stream kept at bay; at other times, our temperature were looking to rise above normal and stay that way. As is often the case, we’ve discovered a middle ground that may not fully appease long weekend campers, but is a far cry from previous circumstances.

Our setup starts with the jet stream bobbing through a deep low-pressure cut; the very same one that gave us our snow showers yesterday. Today, our conditions become benign. Wind is light, and cloud is variable, and snow is gone. We’ll be watching that trough cut away and days from now, it merges again with the northern jet, dragging it back toward us. While it’s cut off, the jet resumes north of us, sheltering much of the province from northern influence; westerly wind aloft helps warm us up, and keeps our conditions casual.

Like I said, though, the re-merge is coming – that low isn’t done with us yet! The second time around, though, it aggregates as rain showers, instead. Northern influence will stay away. That does mean, however, that into the PM hours Sunday, we’re back to another shower-filled Victoria Day long weekend.

Forecast models have been up and down on rainfall totals, with consensus around 10 millimetres for Calgary Monday, with trailing showers on Sunday and again Tuesday. Meanwhile, Monday happens to be the warmest day of the weekend!

Your five-day forecast:

Today:

  • Partly cloudy
  • Daytime high: 9 C
  • Evening: some cloud, low -1 C

Saturday:

  • Mainly sunny
  • Daytime high: 12 C
  • Evening: some cloud, low 2 C

Sunday:

  • Some sun, afternoon/evening showers
  • Daytime high: 12 C
  • Evening: scattered showers, low 6 C

Monday:

  • Showers
  • Daytime high: 18 C
  • Evening: scattered showers, low 7 C

Tuesday:

  • Scattered showers
  • Daytime high: 15 C
  • Evening: scattered showers, low 6 C

Photo time!

Lori sent this wake-up photo from Medicine Hat:

Medicine Hat, snow, May, Lori

Yesterday via Facebook, I received this, too:

Laura took out the macro lens with this Saskatoon berry blossom:

Saskatoon berry blossom, Laura

…and Nick climbed Mount Baldy with his hiking pal, who seems pretty happy to be there! This was on the 15th:

Mount Baldy, dog, Nick, hiking, hike

You can submit your weather photos here, or email me: Kevin Stanfield, OR you can just tweet at me!

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