Edmonton weather for July 30: Hot, dry and record-breaking long weekend

EDMONTON — A few showers and thunderstorms danced around Edmonton again last night, leaving us dry.

AND…if you’re hoping for some moisture, you’re out of luck until next week.

Dry and hot for the next few days in the Edmonton region. In fact, it’ll be hot and dry across most of the province.

 

A bit of high-level haze moved in over Edmonton Thursday. That wildfire smoke from B.C. didn’t make its way down to the surface as Air Quality remained in the 3-4 range. (Three is a “low risk” on the Air Quality Health Index, while 4 is a “moderate risk” on the AQHI.)

I’d expect to see similar conditions through the long weekend. The upper level flow wants to bring in some smoke from the southwest.

However, the surface winds will be favorable – most will be northerly or easterly through the next few days.

So, expect a bit of haze and some “orange-y” skies near sunrise/sunset. But, the AQHI should remain low to moderate.

 

Nothing moderate about the temperatures though.

In Edmonton, we’ll take a run at a couple of records as the heat streak peaks with highs in the low to mid 30s this long weekend.

Sunday still looks like it’ll be the hottest of the three days with a forecast high of 33 C.

Monday’s projected to be 32 C and Saturday has a forecast high of 31 C.

I’ll get into those numbers a little bit more in a minute.

First, let’s deal with the potential records in order of likelihood to break them.

  1. The most 30-degree days in one summer is 14, set in 1961. We’re at 12 so far in 2021 and should get to 15 by Monday. (In fact, if we can crack 30.0 today…we could get to 16.)
  2. Saturday has the best shot at breaking the record of 31.1 set in 1922.
  3. Sunday’s record high of 33.3 was also set in 1922 and is also in jeopardy.
  4. Monday’s record high of 33.9 from (you guessed it) 1922 is probably safe.

 

Here’s my thinking with the forecast highs:

I’m always just trying to be within a degree or two of the actual high.

So, I don’t think there’s any way we’re cooler than 29 or hotter than 33 Saturday: 31 looks like a good call.

I’ve bumped Sunday up to 33 C because 32-34 is the most likely range and 31-35 is a safe estimate.

Monday’s a bit trickier, but the models have been trending hotter for Heritage Day. So, I don’t think we end up with a high below 30…but it’s won’t be as hot as Sunday.

As a result – I’m now at 32 C for a forecast high on Monday.

 

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton:

 

Today – Some clouds this morning. Sunny this afternoon.

High: 29

 

Tonight – A few clouds.

9pm: 23

 

Saturday – Mainly sunny.

RECORD: 31.1 – 1922

Morning Low: 17

Afternoon High: 31

 

Sunday – Mainly sunny.

RECORD: 33.3 – 1922

Morning Low: 18

Afternoon High: 33

 

Monday – Partly cloudy. 30% chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm.

RECORD: 33.9 – 1922

Morning Low: 18

Afternoon High: 32

 

Tuesday – Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: 17

Afternoon High: 28

 

Wednesday – Partly cloudy.

Morning Low: 15

Afternoon High: 28 

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