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Josh Classen’s forecast: Cool, cloudy and windy for the long weekend… with a good chance of rain

It definitely won’t be a long weekend for spray parks and basking in the sun.

In fact, we probably won’t see much sun at all over the course of Saturday-Monday. Just a few sunny breaks today and possibly once or twice this weekend.

A broad upper level trough (pool of cold air aloft) sits over the province and it doesn’t look like that pattern is going to change much in the coming days.

At the surface, we have an area of low pressure in southern Saskatchewan with a pair of troughs stretching back, one into northeastern and one into southern Alberta.

We’ve had rain in the northeast all night and there’s more coming in the next few days.

The Fort McMurray area may see the rain taper off for a while later today and then more moves in tonight and through Saturday.

By the end of Saturday, another 20-30 mm could hit the area and there’s also a chance for some showers on Sunday.

There’s a fair amount of uncertainty with regard to precipitation in Edmonton this long weekend.

But…here’s my thinking:

We should be dry for most (if not all) of today.

Wind will be the biggest issue, gusting upwards of 40-50 km/h midday and through this afternoon.

It looks like we’ll stay on the windy side through Saturday/Sunday as well.

There’s a chance of some showers moving into the Edmonton area from the north Saturday evening, but most of the daytime hours Saturday should be dry.

Sunday’s the best chance for rain. I’m not convinced that it’ll be a full day of steady rain (although that’s possible).

I think it’s more likely to be cloudy, windy and just some occasional showers.

The same goes for Monday. It’s more likely to be showers (especially early Monday).

BUT…again…this isn’t an atmospheric setup that lends itself to easily pinpointing precip location, timing, amounts, etc…especially not several days in advance.

Bottom line: It’ll be cloudy, cool and windy for most of the weekend with a good chance of SOME precipitation.

Morning lows will be in the 2 to 5 C range in the area and afternoon highs will get into the 9 to 14 C range.

 

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

Today – Mostly cloudy. Wind becoming NW 30 gusting to 50 km/h midday and this afternoon.

High: 10

 

Tonight – Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of a shower. Wind NW 20 gusting to 40 km/h.

9pm: 8

 

Saturday – Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of evening & overnight showers.

Wind NW 20 gusting to 40 km/h.

Morning Low: 4

Afternoon High: 12

 

Sunday – Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers or periods of rain.

Wind NW 15-20 gusting 30-40 km/h.

Morning Low: 4

Afternoon High: 10

 

Monday – Mostly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.

Morning Low: 4

Afternoon High: 13

 

Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. 30% chance of late-day showers.

Morning Low: 6

Afternoon High: 16

 

Wednesday – Mostly cloudy.

Morning Low: 6

Afternoon High: 15  

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