Josh Classen’s forecast: Warming trend begins

After a couple days with daytime highs below -5 C, we’ll see temperature get a bit closer to the freezing mark this afternoon.

In fact, today should be our warmest day in a while. We haven’t been above -4 C since Jan. 9. But, we should get to around -2 C this afternoon.

Friday and Saturday’s highs will be Edmonton’s warmest in months. The city hasn’t been above 0 C since Nov. 27.

Today will likely be our 53rd consecutive day with a sub-zero high and that’ll make this the third-longest streak of consecutive days below freezing.

BUT…we’ll probably get just above 0 C on Friday and if we don’t, there’s a very good chance of being just above the freezing mark on Saturday.

 

An upper ridge (bubble of warmer air aloft) is rippling in from the west over the next few days.

Morning clouds will give way to sunshine, light wind and a high just slightly below 0 C this afternoon.

Again…we’ll probably see some clouds move through the region overnight and early Friday. Then, sunshine and a high near 1 C.

(Is it possible that we stay JUST below 0 C?… Yeah. But, I think we’ll JUST break in positives.)

 

Saturday’s cloudier with a chance of some precipitation. There’s a slight risk of some patchy freezing rain in parts of central and north-central Alberta early in the morning.

The better chance for precipitation in the Edmonton area looks to be later in the day with a chance of showers turning to some rain/snow mix and then possibly some wet snow late Saturday night.

So…roads could be a bit of a mess Sunday morning.

Temperatures are expected to slip a bit through the day Sunday, slightly below 0 C in the morning and somewhere near -5 C by late afternoon.

 

Most of next week is shaping up mild with highs near 0 C. (Somewhere in the 2 C to -3 C range.)

BUT…watch for some colder air to drop in as we close out January and the early indications are that we’ll see some cold air return for the start of February.

At this point, we’re expecting daytime highs in the minus double-digits…probably somewhere in the -12 C to -16 C range. But, that’s still a ways off. So, we’ll see how that pattern develops.

 

As for that streak of consecutive days below 0 C.

Here’s a list of the longest stretches:

  • 1956: 83 days
  • 1950: 67 days
  • ***2023: 52 days (today will likely be our 53rd)
  • 1978: 52 days
  • 1952: 48 days
  • 1916: 46 days 

 

It looks very unlikely that we’ll end up higher than third place since we’d have to get to Feb. 1 to tie for second.

AND…there IS an outside chance that we get just slightly above 0 C today, which would leave us in a tie for third with 1978.

 

Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:

 

Today – Mix of sun & cloud this morning. Sunny this afternoon.

High: -2

 

Tonight – Cloudy periods overnight.

9pm: -6

 

Friday – Morning clouds, afternoon sun.

Morning Low: -10

Afternoon High: 2

 

Saturday – Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of pockets of freezing rain in the morning.

40% chance of late-day showers, possibly turning to snow overnight.

Morning Low: -4

Afternoon High: 3

 

Sunday – Clearing in the afternoon. Windy.

Temperature falling through the day.

Morning -1

Afternoon : -4

 

Monday – Mix of sun & cloud.

Morning Low: -12

Afternoon High: -1

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