‘Every last vote counts’: U.S. voters in Canada brace for tight presidential election

November 4, 2024 Canuck

Canada is home to the largest segment of eligible American voters living abroad.

Some 600,000 people who are eligible to cast a ballot in the U.S. presidential election live north of the border, according to the Federal Voting Assistance Program.

That total accounts for roughly 20 per cent of the nearly three million U.S. citizens living abroad who can send in a ballot.

“Canada is a humongous voting block. We’re bigger than some of the states for how many people actually live in this country and have the ability to vote,” said David Schellenberg, co-chair for Canada’s Capital Region branch of Democrats Abroad.

“For example, North Dakota and Wyoming, Canada is bigger than them for the overall ability to cast a ballot. The biggest trick, is sometimes people don’t know they can cast a ballot.”

Ballots from American voters in Canada count in the state they last called home.

For dual citizens born in Canada but still eligible to vote in the U.S. presidential election, their vote will count in the state of their parents’ last American address.

Historically, voter turnout for the segment of the electorate living in Canada has been bleak. In many cases, turnout has failed to eclipse ten per cent.

“Every last vote counts,” said former American ambassador to Canada, Bruce Heyman.

“We’ve spent the last several months, intensively over the last several weeks, trying to reach as many Americans as possible in Canada to encourage them to get registered and vote, and hopefully they’ve done that. You won’t know the details of all that for some time, but at the margin, they could actually be the deciding factor in this election.”

Given where many Americans move to Canada from, others agree that the voting block currently residing in Canada could have a major impact on the outcome of the election.

“A very large number of Americans living in Canada come from border states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, New York. We have a lot of people here from Pennsylvania too,” said Georganne Burke, chapter lead for Republicans Overseas in Canada.

“So, three of the big swing states are represented.”

Anecdotally, Burke says there seems to be a greater level of engagement in this latest election, and she hopes that will translate into increased voter turnout.

“A lot more people have been asking for how they can vote and have been getting their ballots,” she said.

“I even know people who are travelling down to the U.S. to vote because they couldn’t figure out how to do it the other way.”

For now, both Democrats and Republicans wait with bated breath to see who will get the keys to the White House.

“The consequences of this election should not be underestimated, and the choices are quite stark. I have never seen a choice that is as stark as this one in all of the time that I’ve looked at races between the Republicans and Democrats,” said Heyman.

“This is for a very different America, and it’ll be interesting for everybody, especially Canadians, to see what type of America we’re going to be facing over the next four years. I’m hopeful it will be one of consistency, rule of law and hanging on to democracy.”

There will be at least two public watch parties in Ottawa on Tuesday. One at Union 613, while Democrats Abroad will host theirs at the Carleton Tavern.

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