Canadians more likely to prefer someone other than Trudeau lead Liberals in next election: Nanos

June 6, 2024 Canuck

Canadians are three times more likely to prefer someone other than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to lead the Liberals in the next election, a new Nanos Research survey for CTV News shows.

Facing persistently poor polling numbers, questions about the prime minister’s future — and who might be the contenders contemplating runs to replace him — have been swirling for months.

Now, according to the latest survey data, considerably more Canadians would like to see him go, compared to those who say they would want him to lead the Liberal Party of Canada into the coming campaign.

When asked to think ahead to the next federal election and the leadership of the current governing party, 56 per cent of respondents — surveyed between May 31 and June 2 — said they’d prefer the Liberals have someone other than Trudeau at the helm.

Just 17 per cent of those surveyed said they think Trudeau should stay on as Liberal leader in the next election. Another 18 per cent said they had no preference, while eight per cent were unsure.

These numbers show a continued but gradual decline in Canadians’ support for Trudeau in recent years.

In December 2022, when Nanos Research sought feedback on the same question, 51 per cent of respondents said they’d prefer the Liberals have someone other than Trudeau lead the party. At that time, 25 per cent backed Trudeau’s continued leadership.

Then when asked in September and again in December of 2023, 55 per cent of respondents in both months said they’d prefer someone other than Trudeau.

Drilling down on the latest responses, when looking at the demographic breakdowns, women were more likely than men to still show support for Trudeau as Liberal leader.

Only 11 per cent of Atlantic Canadians surveyed said they’d prefer Trudeau stay on, the lowest level of support for that option across the country, followed by 15 per cent in the Prairies.

British Columbians indicated the highest level of support for Trudeau as Liberal leader, with 23 per cent of those surveyed saying they’d like to see him lead the party in the next election.

When it comes to whether someone other than Trudeau should take over, agreement with that sentiment was highest in Ontario, where 60 per cent of those surveyed said they’d like a new Liberal leader, followed by 58 per cent of Quebecers.

Over the last several months, some Liberal loyalists have publicly suggested the prime minister consider plotting his exit to allow time for a leadership race, while others have downplayed leadership speculation, stating they still feel Trudeau carries the Liberal brand well.

Throughout it all, Trudeau has consistently said he does not intend to step aside before facing off against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre at the ballot box, at the latest in October of 2025.

Methodology

Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land-and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,043 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between May 31 and June 2, 2024 as part of an omnibus survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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