Third wave of COVID-19 has ‘crested’ in Ontario but cases remain high, modelling shows

TORONTO — New modelling data released by the province suggests the third wave is now finally “cresting” but the current situation remains very “precarious.”

Experts with Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table presented the new data during a news conference on Thursday as infection numbers in the province dropped below the 4,000 mark for several days.

“This week, we will share data that has some hope, but it’s hope that requires a commitment. The third wave of COVID cases appears to be cresting now,” Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, the co-chair of the advisory table, said.

“Doubling down on this commitment means the cases will come down faster … there’s clear reason for hope, but this hope requires a commitment, a dead set determination to see the job through.” 

“The third wave isn’t cresting on its own. You are making it happen. It’s happening because of our daily choices together.”

The data showed mobility rates drop significantly throughout April resulting in a decrease in case growth. However, the officials noted that workplace mobility is high and its reduction is key in reducing infection rates.

Premier Doug Ford issued a stay-at-home order in early April after experts within and outside his government urgently called for the closure of non-essential businesses and services.

The science table is now calling for even stronger measures to curb case growth. Projections released on Thursday show that without stronger measures, daily cases would remain above 2,000 in June.

With stronger measures in place, including effective sick pay, a further shortlist of essential workplaces, low mobility, and more vaccinations, case numbers could drop below 1,000 by early June.

Officials said that variants are responsible for more than 90 per cent of the cases in Ontario.

This is breaking news story. More to come…  

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